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Recent price movement
Most of the world’s cotton prices moved lower over the past month. However, NY futures sharply reversed direction with the release of this month’s USDA report.
Prices for the most actively traded December futures declined slowly but steadily throughout the month of July. In August, prices broke out of the range between 63 and 68 cents/lb for the first time since mid-March by falling through support near 63 cents/lb. However, following the release of this month’s USDA report, which featured large downward revisions to figures for U.S. production and ending stocks in 2015/16, prices rebounded from levels near 62 cents/lb to those near 65 cents/lb.
The A Index followed NY futures lower throughout July and August and dropped to values below 70 cents/lb before rebounding with NY futures in the latest trading.
The Chinese government facilitated the largest percentage decrease in the value of the RMB relative to the U.S. dollar since 1994 early this week. The shift in the exchange rate lowered the value of the CC Index in dollar terms slightly （from 96 to 94 cents/lb）. In local terms, the CC Index has been steady at values near 13,150 RMB/ton.
Indian spot prices for the Shankar-6 variety moved marginally lower over the past month. In international terms, values declined from 69 to 67 cents/lb. In local terms, prices declined from 34,400 and 33,700 INR/candy.
Pakistani spot prices also decreased slightly. In international terms, values fell from 56 cents/lb to 53 cents/lb. In local terms, prices decreased from 4,700 PKR/ maund to 4,500 PKR/maund.
Supply, demand, & trade
This month’s USDA report featured an important downward revision to global cotton production and a series of changes to historical mill-use numbers. At the world-level, the 2015/16 harvest projection was reduced 2.5 million bales （from 111.5 million to 109.0 million）. The global mill-use number increased slightly, rising 210,000 bales relative to last month’s figure （from 114.4 million to 114.6 million）. In combination, these revisions drove the 2.9 million bale reduction to the 2015/16 forecast for ending stocks （from 108.1 million to 105.2 million）. Despite this decrease, the amount of cotton expected to be stored in the world’s warehouses at the end of the 2015/16 season remains extraordinarily high by historic standards, with a stocks-to-use ratio of 92%.
At the country-level, the largest revisions to production figures were made for world’s largest cotton producers, including the U.S. （-1.4 million bales, to 13.1 million）, China （-1.0 million, to 26.0 million）, and India （-500,000 bales to 29.0 million）. Other notable changes to harvest were made for Brazil （+250,000 to 7.0 million）, Australia（+200,000 to 2.2 million）, Pakistan（+200,000 to 10.2 million）, and Uzbekistan （-200,000 to 3.7 million）.
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